Buyers' faith in markets may prompt excessive risks, economists say
ALISON FITZGERALD
Bloomberg News
Forrest Maltzman, a college professor, sold stock in
July to buy the house next door in Bethesda, Md., for $740,000. He plans
to rent it to cover the mortgage, then sell for a profit in a few years.
In the hottest U.S. real estate markets, including
the Washington area, where median prices rose 22 percent in the year ended
Sept. 30, investors such as Maltzman expect better returns from real
estate than from equities.
"I have a lot of faith in real estate,"
says Maltzman, 41, who teaches politics at George Washington University.
About 30 percent of condominium buyers in Washington
and San Francisco and 40 percent in south Florida are obtaining mortgages
for investment purposes, says Gregory Leisch, chief executive of Delta
Associates, a real-estate research firm. In south Florida, median home
prices are rising by as much as 29 percent annually; in southern
California, 36 percent; and Las Vegas, 54 percent.
That's a sign the market may be overheating, says
Stephen Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley in New York.
"The latest trends in house prices and savings
are disturbing," Roach wrote in a Dec. 3 note to clients. "They
underscore the distinct possibility that America's asset economy is in the
midst of yet another bubble-induced blow-off."
An economic decline in these high-growth pockets,
especially one accompanied by job losses, might cause investors to dump
properties, undermining local housing values. With the U.S. personal
savings rate at a record low of 0.2 percent, a decline in home prices may
narrow retirement options.
An October report by Fannie Mae Chief Economist
David Berson, using data from the San Francisco-based research firm
LoanPerformance, said the proportion of people getting home mortgages for
investment purposes nationwide rose to 9.2 percent in mid2004 from 5.5
percent in the middle of 2003.
More of those people are using money for down
payments that they once had invested in securities, says David Lereah,
chief economist at the Chicago-based National Association of Realtors.
The enticement to buy houses and condos is strong in
areas such as Washington, where the median home price has risen 69 percent
to $362,400 in the past three years. During the same period, the benchmark
Standard & Poor's 500 Index has risen 9.8 percent, including
reinvested dividends.
The nationwide increase in median home prices in the
year ended Sept. 30 was 7.7 percent, according to the realtors
association. That leads most economists, including Federal Reserve
Chairman Alan Greenspan, to conclude that there's no national housing
"bubble" that might destabilize the economy.
Dean Baker, director of the Center for Economic and
Policy Research in Washington, said prices have gone up "in enough
regions that it can have a national economic impact."
Fast-growth markets include Miami, where median
values in the last year have risen 23 percent; Fort Lauderdale, Fla., up
24 percent; West Palm Beach, Fla., up 29 percent; San Diego, 33 percent;
and Los Angeles, 24 percent, according to the realtors association.
The median increase in housing prices for the
Charlotte area was not available. Average prices rose 3.42 percent for the
year ended Sept. 30, according to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise
Oversight. That was well below the national average of almost 13 percent.
Some Fed officials are concerned. The minutes to the
central bank's Dec. 14 meeting say that low interest rates may be
encouraging "excessive risk-taking." They cited "anecdotal
evidence that speculative demands were becoming apparent in the markets
for single-family homes and condominiums."
Nik Shah, 31, a mergers and acquisitions consultant,
owns $2 million worth of condominiums that he rents in Washington's Dupont
Circle, Foggy Bottom and Georgetown neighborhoods and says the value of
each has doubled in the last two years.
"It's like buying a bond," Shah says.
"I bought it and I'm getting a coupon payment and the value is
appreciating."
Now, Shah says he's stopped buying because the
market may have overheated.
The Washington area's price gains are supported by
job growth in the region, said Stephen Fuller, director of the Center for
Regional Analysis at George Mason University in Virginia.
"When the stock market was flying high, only 10
percent of condo buyers were investors," says Delta's Leisch from his
office in Arlington, Virginia. He estimates that 30 percent of Washington
condos now go to buyers seeking investment gains.
Prices for vacation homes in resort and coastal
areas are likely to rise at twice the rate of the overall residential
market, says Lereah, the association's economist.
An association survey to be published next month
will probably show that second-home sales reached a record in 2004.