Sat, Feb. 16, 2002

Builders upbeat after record year

ALLEN NORWOOD

ATLANTA - Sales of new homes hit a record high last year -- 900,000 across the country, compared with 877,000 in 2000 -- and the mood was decidedly upbeat when the nation's builders gathered last week.

And, according to housing economists, this year promises to be nearly as successful.

Mortgage rates should hold steady, or tick up only slightly. Sales should be down a bit, perhaps 2 percent. But that means that this year might be the second or third best ever, said Dave Berson, chief economist with lending giant Fannie Mae. "This year could be another record."

Berson and David Wyss of Standard & Poor's each year join David Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders, to share predictions at the NAHB's annual convention.

Last year, mortgage lending hit $2 trillion. Refinancings are likely to fall from record levels, and total lending should be $1.6 trillion this year. That would be the second highest ever.

Home appreciation is likely to average 4 percent to 4 1/2 percent across the country this year, Berson said.

Wyss, generally the most pessimistic of the "three Daves," doesn't think the recession has quite hit bottom. "We're close to the bottom, but not there yet," he said. And there are potential threats that could keep this from becoming the mildest recession since World War II as predicted.

Another terrorist attack could clobber consumer confidence, he said, or oil prices could soar. Enron is a dark cloud.

But the real unknown is unemployment, the economists said. It's likely to hit 6 1/2 percent, then drift down to 5 1/2 or 6 percent before stalling.

While housing will remain strong, they said, it's hard to see any overall growth in the economy until later in the year.

Award celebration

The folks from Charlotte's Simonini Builders traveled to Atlanta to receive their award as the best builder of their company's size in the country.

Well, that should be "crowd" instead of "folks." Officially, 48 employees, subcontractors, lenders and others attended the award breakfast Sunday morning. Unofficially, they seemed louder.

That's one good thing about sharing I-85 with Atlanta: The connection allowed more deserving team members to be recognized.

Simonini received an America's Best Builder award from Builder magazine, the official publication of the National Association of Home Builders. As detailed in a Jan. 12 story, the company was chosen by 11 judges from among top builders who complete 31 to 100 homes a year.

Boyce Thompson, editor in chief of Builder, said the award recognizes companies that excel in all phases of building and that demonstrate innovative practices that other companies can learn from.

Alan Simonini, president and CEO of the company, and his partner Ray Killian Jr., executive vice president and CFO, thanked employees and vendors for all their hard work.